Could Trump's comeback see more Chinese firm HQs setting up in SEA?

Donald Trump has made history once again, reprising his role as the leader of one of the world's most powerful economies and taking over the White House. Currently, world leaders are congratulating him with PM of Singapore Lawrence Wong stating: "I extend my warmest congratulations on your election as the 47th president of the United States of America.

"The American people have given you an overwhelming mandate and placed their trust in you to lead the US again. I am confident that under your stewardship, the US will continue to grow and exercise its global leadership role."

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PM Wong also highlighted that this year marks the 20th anniversary of the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement which has “almost tripled since its inception”.

“Together with Singapore’s investments into the US, this has supported over 270,000 high-quality jobs in America," said PM Wong.

In a conversation with Basil Chua, managing partner, at Multiverse Partners, the most significant impact on Southeast Asia will be the US-China intensifying trade war and the escalating South China Sea conflict.

“The trade war turned tech war is expected to lead to a great tech divide, with both sides doubling down the divide from adtech/martech, telecommunications, and operating systems to artificial intelligence and robotics,” he said.

He added that if the US government forces Chinese companies to exit the United States, then these Chinese companies may inadvertently turn their attention to Southeast Asia’s burgeoning 600 million population economic bloc.

“Much like Bytedance’s TikTok, Alibaba, Tencent, and many Chinese companies and investments before, the move will likely benefit Singapore as an international hub for trade, finance, investment, business, and logistics while tapping into Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines as their growth engines,” he said, adding that the lowered Chinese Renminbi is expected to rebalance and reverse Chinese outbound tourists and investments in Southeast Asian countries.

Chua added that these are of course, forward-looking statements based on historical data, and the full extent of the macroeconomic, business, and consumer implications will become more apparent in the coming months.

Across the border in Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also congratulated Donald Trump on his political comeback. In a Facebook and X post, the PM said Malaysia is ready to move forward with optimism, collaboration and shared purpose.

“We look forward to working closely with the incoming president to foster mutual benefits for the people of both our nations,” he said. Anwar also shared that the US remains Malaysia’s largest source of foreign investment and a vital player in the Asia Pacific region.

He added that as the ASEAN Chair in 2025, Malaysia hopes that the US will push on with its engagement with Southeast Asia.

While the message from the PM was one of optimism, according to another article published on Channel News Asia earlier this week, Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia should “brace itself for harsher tariffs “ given that the nations have benefited from the China Plus One strategy.

Geoffrey Williams is founder and director of Williams Business Consultancy based in Malaysia said that the Trump victory will be good for global trade and investment, and Malaysia should benefit from that. It will reduce the global headwinds of the last 2 years.

Williams added that for the marketing, media and tech industry, there is very little divide between US and China on B2B and B2C marketing tech, e-commerce or online social media marketing, and in his view, China has an edge in Asia. Hence, the Trump victory has no particular disruption impact on advertising and marketing

“Malaysia and China have a bigger trade and investment footprint than the US and the recent BRICS collaboration will be more important. By chance Malaysia is chair of ASEAN this year and so will remain a key focus for the US for regional trade and investment issues,” he added.

Williams added that the world can also expect a “different approach to the current conflicts under his next administration” which “should benefit the ringgit by creating a more stable global economic environment”.

“There is likely to be less emphasis on green growth and perhaps a more conservative approach to tariffs and trade but this should not affect Malaysia too much because Malaysia’s trade and investment is diversified,” he added.

Separately, according to an article on the MalayMail, MUFG analysts say that the South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit will be hit hard by Trump’s win, because of their export orientation and sensitivity to a potential slowdown in China’s growth.

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