Prabowo 100 days: What are some of the noticeable online sentiment shifts?

In the first 100 days of President Prabowo Subianto's administration, Indonesia has been rocked by economic policy shifts, mass protests, and concerns over growing uncertainty over his leadership direction. His most ambitious initiatives - such as the Danantara sovereign wealth fund and the free school meals programme - have sparked heated debates, while budget cuts have led to street demonstrations under the banner of "Indonesia Gelap" (Dark Indonesia).

At the heart of the unrest lies a deeper sentiment shift. Public optimism following Prabowo's inauguration on 20 October 2024 has faded, say media analysts MARKETING-INTERACTIVE spoke to, giving way to frustration over governance concerns and economic hardships. On social media, viral hashtags such as #IndonesiaGelap and #KaburAjaDulu ("Just Flee First") reflect mounting dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth, as discussions about seeking opportunities abroad gain traction.

To gauge how Prabowo's digital image has evolved amid these developments, MARKETING-INTERACTIVE spoke to social media intelligence firms to analyse sentiment trends, engagement metrics, and viral narratives surrounding his administration.

A nation in debate: economic overhauls and public backlash in Indonesia

Prabowo's policy decisions, particularly the establishment of the Danantara sovereign wealth fund and the accompanying budgetary reallocations, have led to public outcry, say many media reports. The fund, intended to manage over US$900 billion in state-owned assets and modelled after Singapore's Temasek, aims to finance strategic projects in sectors such as renewable energy, manufacturing, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence.

However, critics have expressed concerns about potential political interference and governance issues, drawing parallels to Malaysia's 1MDB scandal. Prabowo has acknowledged these apprehensions and pledged full transparency, stating that Danantara "can be audited any time by anyone because it is owned by the people."

To finance flagship programmes such as the US$28 billion free school meals initiative, the government implemented significant budget cuts across various sectors, notably higher education. This decision sparked widespread protests, with thousands of students and citizens taking to the streets in cities such as Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, and Malang. Demonstrators voiced concerns that these austerity measures undermine essential services and jeopardise their future prospects. The movement also gained traction online, with the hashtag #IndonesiaGelap trending across social media platforms.

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The discontent has been further amplified by the viral hashtag #KaburAjaDulu, reflecting a growing sentiment among young Indonesians to seek opportunities abroad due to domestic economic challenges. This online discourse indicates a significant shift in public perception, with many expressing frustration over the current administration's policies and their impact on the nation's future.

The resultant protests and social media movements have markedly influenced Prabowo's online image, portraying a leader facing considerable scrutiny from the populace. Social media analyses reveal a decline in positive sentiment following his inauguration, as public discourse shifted in response to emerging controversies.

Plummeting sentiment after inauguration

An analysis by CARMA of social media conversations from 20 October 2024 to 27 January 2025 reveals that online discussions started with neutral sentiment in October, as the public processed Prabowo's inauguration.

By November, dissatisfaction grew, spurred by the corruption trial of former trade minister Thomas Lembong, a vocal critic of both Prabowo and his predecessor, Joko (Jokowi) Widodo, CARMA said. The report stated that December marked a peak in negative sentiment due to two controversies: the cancellation of Yos Suprapto's art exhibition, perceived as censorship, and special envoy Gus Miftah's derogatory remarks towards an iced tea seller, which ultimately led to his resignation.

Overall, Prabowo's positive sentiment decreased from 32% in October to just 8.8% by December, before increasing slightly to 11.5% in January, CARMA noted.

Meanwhile, another report by Tocanan details Prabowo's early economic policies, some praised, others controversial. His SME debt write-off - up to IDR 500 million (US$30,500) for businesses and IDR 300 million (US$18,300) for individuals - was widely lauded, especially in Eastern Indonesia, as a major poverty relief measure. Instagram sentiment was 75% positive, with users sharing success stories.

His January VAT policy had mixed reactions: Middle-class support versus luxury buyers' discontent, according to Tocanan. Meanwhile, an IDR 38.6 trillion (US$2.4 billion) stimulus - rice aid for 16 million families, electricity discounts, and MSME tax breaks - earned 68% approval on Facebook, though Reddit and Twitter raised fiscal concerns.

Tocanan said that mothers celebrated the free meal programme with #AnakSehat, but viral TikTok videos of spoiled meals in Papua drew criticism. By February 15, Jakarta's 89% coverage contrasted with Papua's 12% due to logistical hurdles.

Overall, the net public sentiment peaked in early January after the economic stimulus and free meal programme launched, then declined, Tocanan reported.

Forex retention, Danantara, and gold bank

In February, Prabowo's administration enacted Presidential Instruction 1/2025, mandating an 8% budget cut across ministries to fund its programmes. Social media discussions split into three groups: those who praised fiscal discipline, neutral observers citing the need for efficiency, and critics warning of underfunding in infrastructure and education, Tocanan noted. Java-based student communities were particularly vocal in opposition.

Simultaneously, Government Regulation 8/2025 introduced a 100% forex retention requirement for natural resource exporters, a policy designed to stabilise the rupiah. While nickel miners backed the measure, palm oil giants raised liquidity concerns, according to Tocanan. Heated debates on Reddit's r/Finansial forum reflected this divide.

The February launch of Danantara saw activist group #DanantaraWatch amass 1.2 million TikTok views questioning the fund's governance, Tocanan added.

Prabowo's administration also introduced a state-owned gold bank to capitalise on Indonesia's gold reserves. While farmers protested against government buyout prices, the initiative received backing from Islamic scholars, who endorsed it as a "syariah-compliant" wealth management tool, driving positive engagement on Facebook.

How Prabowo's standing compares with other leaders

Prabowo's early social media presence starkly contrasts with that of regional leaders. Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim initially enjoyed 45%-50% positive sentiment, driven by anti-corruption rhetoric and economic reforms, according to CARMA. Meanwhile, Jokowi built early goodwill through grassroots engagement and digital outreach, securing 40%-45% positive sentiment in his first 100 days. In contrast, Prabowo's administration saw positive sentiment plummet from 32% in October to just 8.8% by December.

While his administration maintained a strong media presence via Tempo.co and political influencers, it struggled to sustain positive engagement, CARMA added. Influencers and political commentators played a crucial role in shaping Prabowo's digital narrative. High-engagement figures like @JhonSitorus_18 and @msaid_didu frequently criticised his policies, while public figures like @susipudjiastuti and @BosPurwa amplified political discourse during sensitive periods.

CARMA also noted that Jokowi's administration excelled in personal branding through his "common man" image and direct citizen engagement via blusukan (impromptu visits). His proactive crisis management and social media strategy sustained higher positive sentiment. Similarly, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, an early social media adopter among Indonesian presidents, maintained strong narrative control through formal communication channels and a focus on international diplomacy.

"In today's hyper-connected world, people's opinions are shaped by many factors, including what they are exposed to on social media. The sentiment shifts observed in the CARMA data often serve as early indicators of policy reception and public trust metrics, highlighting the crucial role of digital presence in modern political leadership. This understanding becomes particularly relevant when examining how sentiment shifts can impact policy implementation and public support," said Divika Jethmal, CARMA's head of marketing for Asia.

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