GroupM's Rupert McPetrie on media outlook for 2025 and spirit of entrepreneurialism

The media landscape has come across big changes in the past year and 2025 will drive towards a fully addressable, shoppable and accountable media ecosystem, marking a shift into the “New Era of Media”.

According to GroupM’s 2024 Global End-of-Year Forecast, the global ad industry has surpassed US$1 trillion in total revenue in 2024 and climb 7.7% in 2025 to US$1.1 trillion. Advertising on digital platforms, which includes retail media as a segment, is what’s driving that increase.

On the other hand, “Pure-play” digital, excluding the digital extensions of traditional media such as CTV and digital out-of-home (DOOH), but including YouTube and TikTok—is the largest segment of advertising revenue globally and will account for 72.9% of total advertising in 2025 and 76.8% in 2029.

The rapid integration of AI across the media value chain has also transformed how brands interact with consumers. In a conversation with MARKETING-INTERACTIVE, Rupert McPetrie (pictured), CEO, GroupM China, also shared his optimism about the outlook of the media industry in 2025. With more elections concluded in 2024 than ever before, there is now more confidence and certainty, leading to greater optimism for 2025. He believes there’s a terrific opportunity for industry players in 2025 and it’s crucial for them to protect the spirit of entrepreneurialism.

Listen to the podcast here.

MARKETING-INTERACTIVE: What do you think are the most significant trends impacting the media industry today?

McPetrie: So I often talk a lot about this next era, the new era of media. I think it's such an exciting time for our industry, and there's such an opportunity for us to really solidify, and cement the role that we play in driving clients businesses, and the impact that the industry has more broadly on business and consumers.

I guess for me, the keyword that I use is all around integration. I'll talk a bit about what I mean by that, and no podcast these days would be complete without me also mentioning AI, which I see as a significant enabler to some of what we'll be doing as an industry, and specifically some of what we at GroupM will be doing.

So let me reflect on some of those trends, I think, from a from a platform point of view, I still see this incredible rate of change, and that's regardless of platform, almost this sort of ecosystem development, there's so much innovation that then gets mimicked, copied, amplified, extended to this much more holistic, sort of full-funnel ecosystem, whereas a consumer, or as an industry or as a client, you can stay in one ecosystem, you can dance across ecosystems, but really drive everything from that information sharing, search behaviour, awareness driving, classic brand building all the way through to purchase and everything in between. So I think the platforms continue to develop at speed.

And for me, this has such an interesting connotation for us, because you'll see, in a way, a further consolidation, further concentration of advertising expenditure into the key platforms, but at the same time, the competition will be very, very fierce across those platforms.

So what do I mean by that? I mean when you look at our advertising forecasts for 2025 globally, regionally and in China, Greater China, you'll see that that share of advertising spend that the Giants take will further increase, but the competition between those giants gets ever more intense because they are now fully holistic ecosystems, competing, not just in search, not just in awareness and brand building, not just in commerce, but completely through the line.

MARKETING-INTERACTIVE: You mentioned that the transformation of the industry is more like evolution, rather than revolution. Can you share with us some of your experiences within the space?

So I guess those ad forecasts we feel quite bullish about 2024 was a year characterised, I think, by some uncertainty, more people electing their governments globally than ever before. Those elections have now played through a lot of the challenges. The macro challenges are kind of priced in now for 2025 and then we see various stimulus packages, particularly Chinese mainland, which I think could be quite interesting for certainly the second half year 2025 so I think we're feeling a little bit more confident generally.

How do I feel about the industry? I feel pretty positive. And that's not just because we're talking at the start of the year, and I've just come back from holiday it's much more, I think, a view that, as we've gone through, the landing of 2024 and we've been talking to customers about the outlook for 2025 talking to platforms and vendors around 2025, I do feel more positive for 2025 than I did for 2024 I think there's, again, a terrific opportunity for us. It's up to us as an industry if we seize that opportunity, and that, I guess, is my provocation.

There's always a lot of talk around change, a lot of talk around systemic issues in the industry. I'm very mindful of the challenges we have, but as ever with a challenge, it's how you strategise around. That is how you set the pace for the future and how you assess and seize the opportunity in front of us. And at a time, I think when clients are asking for more visibility, more line of sight, on what their advertising dollars are doing for their businesses, I think this is a time when agencies can thrive.

I always think agencies do their best work at times of change. I always think we have the biggest opportunity to do impactful work, to change conversations, to have really relevant work at times of change.

And times continue to change. And I think again, that gives us a significant opportunity if we elect, if we actively choose, to take it. So I think, sure, we all have pressure. We're all mindful of the challenges.

But at the end of the day, these are changes that are not new today. And I know we're going to talk a bit about lessons from the past and application for the future, but I guess you know, the sooner that we as an industry or as a group or as an agency, why we identify some of these trends, some of these changes, we have a significant opportunity to demonstrate value, to add value to clients, businesses, to inform consumers, to drive products, drive services.

MARKETING-INTERACTIVE: Do you have any advice for the industry players on how to seize that opportunity in time to deliver the best solutions for clients?

Well, I don't want to give away all the trade secrets, of course, right? But look, I guess you know, for some of the obvious themes around that is, I think particularly businesses that have very, very strong histories, foundations, we can sometimes get captured in the routine, I guess. And I think the biggest opportunity we all have in big structures is to continue to innovate, and continue to be brave, even in these very, very well-structured corporate systems.

To be clear, I'm not talking about crazy risk-taking. I'm not talking about breaking any rules. I'm just trying to talk about capturing a real spirit of innovation, that entrepreneurialism, that really drives our business. If you can keep that, cherish, nurture and develop that at a time, whilst maintaining all that confidence that comes with scale and big business and corporate structures, that's the sweet spot.

I think when as an industry, we do that, well, we gain a huge amount of client trust, because we're obviously taking care of the today, but we're also demonstrating capability for the future. So again, you think about what clients are asking for now, that line of sight, more integrated approach, simplified structures. This is all within our gift to do within all our corporate boundaries, and all the rules and regulations, but don't get captured into the more administrative side of our industry. We're a creative business. We're a creative industry.

We drive change, we get out messaging around information services, and products that can genuinely change people's lives, the wellbeing of communities and the wider population. So it's something that is in our gift. We just need to protect that spirit of entrepreneurialism.

MARKETING-INTERACTIVE: Given your background in history, how can studying different cultures’ pasts inform your understanding of current global dynamics?

I read history at university, and it's something I still love, very passionate about it. When I was first taught history, it was all about facts. It was about dates, kings and queens of England, various ebb and flow of countries and so on. But obviously, as time evolved, history became much more nuanced. It's not about the facts and the figures. It's about trends. It's about change. It's about evolution, and it's about decisions that are taken based on certain facts and information that are available to those decision-makers at the time.

And one of the things I've always loved about history is that sort of retrospective look at decision-making at times of change. Because, of course, you'd sit here today in 2025 and think, hey, what the hell does medieval British history have to do with running an ad agency in Asia Pacific in current times, and of course, on face value, nothing.

But actually, when you look at the history of decision making based on information at hand, and you look at the rapidity, the speed of decision making and the speed of course correction, if needed, then there are plenty of lessons.

None of them is copy-paste, none of them is direct, because we're in a different era, of course, and so much has changed, but some of that sort of fundamental around what information we have to hand, how quickly we make a decision, how we react to the impact of decisions that we make, I think are very valuable, and I think particularly, again, I spoke earlier about times of change, with times changing so rapidly now with technologies, the way that we make decisions has to be well informed, right?

MARKETING-INTERACTIVE: Are there any instances from history that offer lessons relevant to today's challenges, such as economic downturns, technological disruptions or societal transformations?

I think one of the key sorts of generic observations I'd have on all those things is around communication of change management, I think particularly today, when information flows in such radically different ways. And it did even five or 10 years ago. And the way that consumers, people, communities, process information and make choices that, the many more choices that people have to make these days than in the past, I think how we communicate, our strategies, how we communicate, if needed, course correction is absolutely critical.

I speak from a recent experience where, as you know, a couple of years ago we formed essence, Mediacom, merging two of the world's leading agencies to form the world's biggest agency EssenceMediacom. And the big learning for me from all of that was around the communication of change, because if you don't communicate well, people create their own narratives.

People invent or imagine their own stories. So the more we can communicate, the better.

And that, by the way, includes if we need course correction, if we set out to do something. Quite radical, and we need to draw back a bit, of course correct. That's fine. And certainly, in our industry, that tends to be younger cohorts, younger generations, for a lot of the time, these people will expect our people will expect a more transparent way of communicating.

This article is done in collaboration with GroupM China.